Rating the Myanmar military’s performance against its ‘three national causes’

Min Aung Hlaing being paraded at the 2023 Armed Forces Day celebration

During yesterday’s 2023 Armed Forces Day speech, Min Aung Hlaing referenced the need for Myanmar’s military to safeguard the so-called “Three National Causes.” The entire speech is available here. These causes are enshrined in section 6 of the army-drafted 2008 constitution. Now let’s rate the military’s performance against its own purported objectives:

1. Non-disintegration of the Union
2. Non-disintegration of national solidarity
3. Perpetuation of sovereignty

It’s clear the military has no business in running the country, even by its own standards. Over the 5+ decades it has occupied Myanmar, it has proven itself incompetent and incapable of basic governance.

During the speech, Min Aung Hlaing again promised a re-do of the 2020 election. But let’s not forget that military had already specifically engineered the 2008 Constitution to maximise its electoral performance, giving it a huge head start (by reserving 25% of seats for the military) and diverting state assets to its proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party. The military has now unilaterally rigged the electoral rules once again, switching to a proportional representation system, to increase its odds of securing a legislative majority.

1st cause: Non-disintegration of the Union — ⏬

• The country has never been any closer to disintegration. The 2021 military coup has accelerated this process. The military controls only 17% of the country’s total territory. And it’s struggling to hold onto power, resorting to even more expensive and lethal tactics like airstrikes.
• The coup has brought military conflict straight into the Burmese heartland in Sagaing and Magwe regions. Mind you, these were historically traditional recruiting grounds for the military, previously untouched by war for decades leading up to the 2021 coup.
• The Arakan Army has increased its administrative control of Rakhine State, another area that was largely under the control of the central government before the coup. The military has had to cut its losses there, as it struggles to multi-task in multiple battlefronts.

Post-coup Myanmar has been pockmarked with conflict areas

2nd cause: Non-disintegration of national solidarity — ⏬

• Dozens of military-perpetrated massacres against civilians, including in Mondaingbin, Letyetkon, Hpakant, Tadaing, and Pinlaung have driven a deeper, lasting wedge between the military and the people of Myanmar.
• The military has repeatedly undermined rule of law. In 2020, Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy played by the military’s rules and still won in a landslide, enjoying a popular mandate to govern. Other parties like the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, which also won seats now refuse to go along with the military’s plans for a re-do election. The military’s relentless scheming undermines any trust ordinary citizens had in the electoral process.
• To put the icing on the cake, the military is now inciting ethnic tension between different communities, like the Buddhist Pa’O and Christian Karennis, pitting blame on their own massacres on other ethnic minorities. Simply abhorrent.

3rd cause: Perpetuation of sovereignty — 🔽

• Myanmar is now more vulnerable than before to encroachments on its sovereignty, as the military increases its dependence on Russia and China for arms and diplomatic cover. Conflict areas along the Chinese border are now Chinese client states, adopting the Chinese yuan and Mandarin Chinese as their lingua franca.
• The military has lost any semblance of control over border regions controlled by the military’s Border Guard Forces (former ethnic armed organisations absorbed into the army after signing ceasefires) and ethnic armed organisations.
• The coup has resurrected border towns like Shwe Kokko and KK Park, known human trafficking and cyber fraud hubs for Chinese crime syndicates, outside of the junta’s reach. These crime hubs have affected citizens from throughout the world, including India, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and even Kenya.
• In conflict areas throughout the country, illegal logging, destructuctive rare earth mining, and opium cultivation have all surged, all of which undermine national interests. Kachin State is now pockmarked with hundreds of illegal rare earth mines the size of Singapore, as China pushes to outsource the dirty (and toxic) work of rare earth mining to Myanmar.

Throwback

Here’s some nostalgia. Anyone who grew up in Myanmar or consumed Burmese entertainment from the 1990s to 2000s is familiar with this propaganda readout (a precursor to these ‘national causes’), at the beginning of virtually every karaoke VCD or film:

These were also plastered on the front pages of every state-owned newspaper through the 2010s.

The nation’s 12 political, economic and social causes in state-run newspapers

Myanmar’s military simply haven’t lived up to their words. Under their tyrannical reign, politics, the economy, and society, and most importantly, the people of Myanmar have paid the price. It’s time to end their impunity.