How to combat Myanmar’s military: breaking down their coup playbook
Understanding how to strategically counteract Myanmar’s military in the aftermath of their recent 1 February coup d’état requires analysing their playbook. The armed forces, called Tatmadaw, is no stranger to staging coups. Since Myanmar declared independence in 1948, the military has staged 4 successful coups, in 1958 (2 years), 1962 (26 years), 1988 (23 years), and 2021, ensuing 50+ years of military occupation. That’s a 100% success rate.
0. Build the case for a military takeover
Myanmar’s military leaders came prepared. As early as August 2020, astute political analysts like Sithu Aung Myint had speculated on the possibility of a coup. The signs were already there.
- Aung San Suu Kyi’s ensnarement in the Rohingya and ethnic conflicts. Like clockwork, soon after Suu Kyi’s government rose to power in 2016, the military began escalating genocidal military offensives on Rohingya villages. It actively undermined the NLD’s attempts to broker peace talks with other ethnic rebel groups. And it forced Suu Kyi’s hand to become the international face of the Rohingya crisis, effectively shielding itself from culpability and engineering her fall from grace, and with it, any likelihood of international intervention after a coup.
- De-legitimisation of the vote: 4 months before the election, commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing had met with 34 military-allied parties accusing the Union Election Commission of being unable to conduct a free and fair election. In a remarkable statement, he declared he wouldn’t rule out a military intervention. After a landslide NLD victory in November 2020, the military went on the full offensive, undermining the credibility of election results (already declared free and fair by domestic and international observers).
- The need to preserve the status quo: Min Aung Hlaing was set to turn 65 in July 2021, the mandatory retirement age. A vacancy for commander-in-chief would have been filled by the NLD-elected president, raising the military’s stakes to appoint someone who wouldn’t disrupt the status quo as Min Aung Hlaing’s successor. It’s worth noting that no civilian has ever appointed a commander-in-chief since 1949 (72 years ago).
- Personal ambition: Min Aung Hlaing had been eyeing a role of president. In recent years, he had begun cultivating a public persona, establishing a Facebook presence (until he was banned from the platform in 2018) and staging surreal photo ops. Before the 2020 election, he had colluded with the military proxy party, USDP, to secure an appointment in the event the USDP won enough parliamentary seats to appoint him. His family had also become more openly brazen about their business interests in recent years.
- Redeployment of troops: In November 2020, Min Aung Hlaing negotiated a ceasefire with the Arakan Army, enabling him to re-deploy half of the army’s reserve troops out of Rakhine State into the urban centres in the lead-up to the coup.
- Perfect timing: 1 February was ideal timing to go for the kill. Myanmar’s elected MPs and civilian leaders were all in town at Naypyidaw, set to be sworn in the following day. Like sitting ducks, the military easily rounded them up and proceeded to declare an unconstitutional nation-wide state of emergency.
Millions of ordinary folks are now actively resisting the coup, putting their very lives on the line. But the military already has a well-defined playbook to deal with the aftermath. Here are some key steps:
1. Disrupt communications
Since the coup on 1 February, the military has enforced unpredictable nation-wide internet blackouts, effectively cutting off millions of people from the rest of the world and disrupting people’s ability to communicate and organise. This darkness has fueled misinformation and rumours, including a prevailing online theory that the downtime is necessary for the military to build a “Great Firewall” with Chinese technical assistance, and unconfirmed reports of Chinese soldiers partnering with local security forces.
2. Gaslight the public
The military is keen on changing the narrative to its favour. The Ministry of Information issued a viral censorship warning to local news outlets, instructing journalists not to use words like “military regime,” or “dictatorship.”
It’s also imposed a media blackout, taking domestic and international TV channels with unfavourable press coverage, from DVB to CNN, off the air. In this vacuum, the military has attempted to gaslight the public, airing concerts, exercise videos, and documentaries on military-owned Myawaddy TV (MWD), anything but the public opposition to the coup.
In a recent press conference, the military claimed that the institution enjoyed 90% of the population’s support, and insinuated that civil service workers were being pressured to join the growing civil disobedience movement. It has simultaneously organised sizable groups of paid protesters and monks to spout pro-military slogans with little security interference.
3. Stoke public fear
People have been on high alert since the coup, knowing very well the military’s tactics of deploying thugs to incite violence during uprisings in living memory, including in 1988 and 2007.
On 12 February, Min Aung Hlaing released 23,000 convicted prisoners, stoking fears that the amnesty is designed to clear space from overcrowded prisons to make room for protesters, and to unleash an uncontrollable wave of crime to divert people’s attention. In response to the significant uptick in crime and arson, many communities have formed neighborhood watch groups. Meanwhile, social media has since proliferated with posts of documented arson attacks, suspects purportedly caught in the act, and much more.
4. Divide and conquer the opposition
The military has a well-documented history of creating factions, or as we Burmese say, “breaking apart blood” (သွေးခွဲ). Min Aung Hlaing established the military junta, the State Administration Council, appointing key political rivals to Suu Kyi’s NLD, as SAC members and as ministers, precipitated by months of back-channel negotiations.
At the grassroots level, the military has used decoy protesters at pro-democracy rallies, in order to incite and inflict violence on protesters. Documented cases of soldiers and recently released felons donning monk robes and activist attire have been circulated across social media, and nationalist monasteries, such as Shwegyin Taikgyi in Yangon’s Bahan Township, that harboured such aggressors, have been treated with impunity. With a persistent fear of the “enemy within,” protesters have had to be especially vigilant.
5. Bend the legal system to its will
Myanmar’s legal system is a sham to begin with, with many opaque military-era laws still on the books, used to arbitrarily prosecute individuals (like the estoteric walkie-talkie law used against Suu Kyi). The military has set back Myanmar’s judicial system by decades, and essentially stacked the odds against the opposition.
In record time, the military has been quick to completely switch out Supreme Court justices and members of the Constitutional Tribunal with its allies. It has also imposed martial law throughout most of the country, which allows authorities to impose nightly curfews, and ban gatherings of more than 5 people. It recently amended the Penal and Criminal Codes to expand the definition of “treason,” and enacted measures designed to punish public opposition. The military has also suspended fundamental citizen rights enshrined in the Constitution. The suspension of these rights enables authorities to detain and search people without warrants, and requires residents to report overnight guests to local authorities every night.
Lastly, the military has sent a chilling message to protesters through mass arrests of high-profile individuals and ordinary people alike, ranging from politicians and reporters to schoolteachers and high school students. As of 18 February, 521 people have been detained, a two-fold increase from the previous week. The military has ramped up on high-profile arrests on celebrities actively supporting the resistance, forcing popular entertainers like Paing Phyo Thu into hiding.
6. Use violent and lethal force
All this brings me to the last step. With no compromise in sight, the military is beginning to resort to the use of violent and lethal force to quell the opposition, at public rallies and inside private homes. Since Sunday, armoured military tanks have been spotted in major urban centres like Yangon.
Soldiers and lethal weapons have been deployed at major protest sites across the country. In Yangon, soldiers have stood behind riot police, ready to act. In Naypyidaw, water cannons and machine guns were unleashed on unarmed protesters. In Mandalay, authorities have shot rounds at a complex housing Myanmar Railway workers. One 20-year-old girl, Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing, was declared brain dead, after live ammunition pierced her helmet and lodged in her brain. So far, authorities have been reluctant to use extreme force in the hyper-connected commercial capital of Yangon. On 20 February, police and soldiers unleashed deadly force in Mandalay, killing 2 unarmed protesters and injuring 20.
How much more time we have left is all but uncertain…
Footnotes
This is an evolving story.
