Five reasons why ASEAN needs to do more about Myanmar
Let’s be clear: ASEAN has been an absolutely abysmal disaster in dealing with the crisis in Myanmar. Since global powers — China, the United States, and the European Union — delegated this crisis to ASEAN, it has struggled to execute a concrete plan to facilitate the restoration of rule of law and democracy in Myanmar.
But ASEAN has been stymied by its own member states in taking decisive action. Unsurprisingly, the most vocal ASEAN member states with respect to Myanmar are also the most democratic:
- 🇲🇾 Malaysia — flawed democracy
- 🇵🇭 Philippines — flawed democracy
- 🇮🇩 Indonesia — flawed democracy
- 🇹🇭 Thailand — flawed democracy
- 🇸🇬 Singapore — flawed democracy
- 🇰🇭 Cambodia — authoritarian
- 🇻🇳 Vietnam — authoritarian
- 🇱🇦 Laos — authoritarian
- 🇧🇳 Brunei —not ranked (but authoritarian)
Source: 2022 Democracy Index
However, the mainland Southeast Asian nations (which mostly trend autocratic), including Thailand, have largely remained silent, afraid they will be next. But there’s a key difference: the Burmese military has long been a destabilizing force that threatens Southeast Asian security and interests. It has single-handedly unleashed political instability and unprecedented mass suffering, and proven itself incapable of restoring peace, let alone governing Myanmar over these past six decades.
It’s a huge mistake to assume what’s happening in Myanmar is fully contained within its borders. Here are five key reasons why ASEAN needs to do more.
#1. Your own citizens are at risk.
Human trafficking from other Asian countries into Myanmar has intensified since the 2021 coup, as Chinese crime syndicates have taken advantage of the ongoing domestic chaos and military’s inability to rule. Many Asians have been lured into Myanmar under the guise of well-paying jobs only to find themselves trapped. These syndicates have established industrial-scale cyber scamming hubs in Myanmar’s periphery, staffing them with citizens from other Asian countries, including Malaysians, Filipinos, Chinese, and Indians.
#2. Your business investments are at stake.
Here’s one example. Vietnam’s largest carrier Viettel owns half of MyTel, a national carrier that is co-owned by the Burmese military. Post-coup, Burmese consumers and resistance forces have turned on MyTel, boycotting MyTel services, targeting its employees, and destroying its cellular infrastructure. In the 1st four months of the coup alone, MyTel lost $25 million in profits. As of January 2023, ASEAN countries have invested a combined US$40 billion in Myanmar, with 99% of it coming from Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
#3. Worsening instability in Myanmar will unleash a regional humanitarian crisis at an unimaginable scale.
Two years into the coup, the situation in Myanmar is taking a turn for the worse. Over the years, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have already witnessed firsthand, and struggled to provide support, to many waves of Burmese refugees from Rohingya, Karen, and other communities. Last year, Myanmar had 1.2 million refugees, the highest in Asia outside of Afghanistan. And ASEAN simply doesn’t have the infrastructure to cope with a looming disaster in its footsteps; in 2021, ASEAN had a paltry budget of US$13 million to cover the humanitarian needs of its 662 million people.
#4. More drugs will flow in.
The Burmese military has fueled the illicit drug trade, worsening the inflow of illegal drugs into the rest of Southeast Asia. Last year, cultivation of opium in Myanmar increased 33% under military rule, reversing a 6-year downward trend under civilian rule. And guess what: all that opium isn’t for domestic consumption. Experts predict Myanmar will soon surpass Mexico in the production of synthetic drugs like meth. Myanmar’s army has long used the drug trade as a bargaining chip to deal with ethnic armed groups, and top military officials have also financially benefited from this grand bargain. As the crisis worsens, the military is increasingly becoming more desperate and permissive of these activities, to placate these restive groups.
#5. The Burmese military in its current form will always be a liability to your organization.
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. Since admitting Myanmar into ASEAN in 1997, the military has continued to disappoint, on the political, economic, and social fronts. ASEAN’s ambition to more deeply integrate its member states in the face of China and India will be stymied by the military’s recalcitrance and inability to govern Myanmar. The world has already given the Myanmar’s armed forces 60+ years to prove itself. Let’s not waste any more time.
ASEAN’s failure to execute threatens the very existence of ASEAN as a regional body. The entire whole world is watching.
